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Humanity in the Age of AI: Reassessing 2025's Existential-Risk Narratives

Louadi, Mohamed El

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Two 2025 publications, "AI 2027" (Kokotajlo et al., 2025) and "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" (Yudkowsky & Soares, 2025), assert that superintelligent artificial intelligence will almost certainly destroy or render humanity obsolete within the next decade. Both rest on the classic chain formulated by Good (1965) and Bostrom (2014): intelligence explosion, superintelligence, lethal misalignment. This article subjects each link to the empirical record of 2023-2025. Sixty years after Good's speculation, none of the required phenomena (sustained recursive self-improvement, autonomous strategic awareness, or intractable lethal misalignment) have been observed. Current generative models remain narrow, statistically trained artefacts: powerful, opaque, and imperfect, but devoid of the properties that would make the catastrophic scenarios plausible. Following Whittaker (2025a, 2025b, 2025c) and Zuboff (2019, 2025), we argue that the existential-risk thesis functions primarily as an ideological distraction from the ongoing consolidation of surveillance capitalism and extreme concentration of computational power. The thesis is further inflated by the 2025 AI speculative bubble, where trillions in investments in rapidly depreciating "digital lettuce" hardware (McWilliams, 2025) mask lagging revenues and jobless growth rather than heralding superintelligence. The thesis remains, in November 2025, a speculative hypothesis amplified by a speculative financial bubble rather than a demonstrated probability.


VCU-Bridge: Hierarchical Visual Connotation Understanding via Semantic Bridging

Zhong, Ming, Wang, Yuanlei, Zhang, Liuzhou, An, Arctanx, Zhang, Renrui, Liang, Hao, Lu, Ming, Shen, Ying, Zhang, Wentao

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) excel on benchmarks, their processing paradigm differs from the human ability to integrate visual information. Unlike humans who naturally bridge details and high-level concepts, models tend to treat these elements in isolation. Prevailing evaluation protocols often decouple low-level perception from high-level reasoning, overlooking their semantic and causal dependencies, which yields non-diagnostic results and obscures performance bottlenecks. We present VCU-Bridge, a framework that operationalizes a human-like hierarchy of visual connotation understanding: multi-level reasoning that advances from foundational perception through semantic bridging to abstract connotation, with an explicit evidence-to-inference trace from concrete cues to abstract conclusions. Building on this framework, we construct HVCU-Bench, a benchmark for hierarchical visual connotation understanding with explicit, level-wise diagnostics. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate a consistent decline in performance as reasoning progresses to higher levels. We further develop a data generation pipeline for instruction tuning guided by Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) and show that strengthening low-level capabilities yields measurable gains at higher levels. Interestingly, it not only improves on HVCU-Bench but also brings benefits on general benchmarks (average +2.53%), especially with substantial gains on MMStar (+7.26%), demonstrating the significance of the hierarchical thinking pattern and its effectiveness in enhancing MLLM capabilities. The project page is at https://vcu-bridge.github.io .


6 Supplementary Material 6.1 Original CLUTRR evaluation

Neural Information Processing Systems

The models are given as input " [story] [query] " and asked to generate the proof and answer. In our case, the entity names are important to evaluate systematic generalization. Train and test overlap percentages between all building blocks are in Table 5. The models are given as input " [story] [query] " and asked to The models are given as input " Figure 6: Evaluation of models trained on levels 2, 4, 6 only. Additional experiments in Section 6.4 were run with The models are given as input " [story] Models are trained on levels 2, 4, 6 only.


AT opological Perspective on Causal Inference

Neural Information Processing Systems

Markovian) models, no model can ever be determined from observational data alone [35, 2]. At the same time, in many settings it is sensible to aim for results with "nearly universal" force.


Beyond One-Size-Fits-All: Personalized Harmful Content Detection with In-Context Learning

Zhang, Rufan, Zhang, Lin, Mi, Xianghang

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The proliferation of harmful online content--e.g., toxicity, spam, and negative sentiment--demands robust and adaptable moderation systems. However, prevailing moderation systems are centralized and task-specific, offering limited transparency and neglecting diverse user preferences--an approach ill-suited for privacy-sensitive or decentralized environments. We propose a novel framework that leverages in-context learning (ICL) with foundation models to unify the detection of toxicity, spam, and negative sentiment across binary, multi-class, and multi-label settings. Crucially, our approach enables lightweight personalization, allowing users to easily block new categories, unblock existing ones, or extend detection to semantic variations through simple prompt-based interventions--all without model retraining. Extensive experiments on public benchmarks (TextDetox, UCI SMS, SST2) and a new, annotated Mastodon dataset reveal that: (i) foundation models achieve strong cross-task generalization, often matching or surpassing task-specific fine-tuned models; (ii) effective personalization is achievable with as few as one user-provided example or definition; and (iii) augmenting prompts with label definitions or rationales significantly enhances robustness to noisy, real-world data. Our work demonstrates a definitive shift beyond one-size-fits-all moderation, establishing ICL as a practical, privacy-preserving, and highly adaptable pathway for the next generation of user-centric content safety systems. To foster reproducibility and facilitate future research, we publicly release our code on GitHub and the annotated Mastodon dataset on Hugging Face.


AT opological Perspective on Causal Inference

Neural Information Processing Systems

Markovian) models, no model can ever be determined from observational data alone [35, 2]. At the same time, in many settings it is sensible to aim for results with "nearly universal" force.


Multi-level Diagnosis and Evaluation for Robust Tabular Feature Engineering with Large Language Models

Lim, Yebin, Yoon, Susik

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have shown promise in feature engineering for tabular data, but concerns about their reliability persist, especially due to variability in generated outputs. We introduce a multi-level diagnosis and evaluation framework to assess the robustness of LLMs in feature engineering across diverse domains, focusing on the three main factors: key variables, relationships, and decision boundary values for predicting target classes. We demonstrate that the robustness of LLMs varies significantly over different datasets, and that high-quality LLM-generated features can improve few-shot prediction performance by up to 10.52%. This work opens a new direction for assessing and enhancing the reliability of LLM-driven feature engineering in various domains.


EngiBench: A Benchmark for Evaluating Large Language Models on Engineering Problem Solving

Zhou, Xiyuan, Wang, Xinlei, He, Yirui, Wu, Yang, Zou, Ruixi, Cheng, Yuheng, Xie, Yulu, Liu, Wenxuan, Zhao, Huan, Xu, Yan, Gu, Jinjin, Zhao, Junhua

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) have shown strong performance on mathematical reasoning under well-posed conditions. However, real-world engineering problems require more than mathematical symbolic computation -- they need to deal with uncertainty, context, and open-ended scenarios. Existing benchmarks fail to capture these complexities. We introduce EngiBench, a hierarchical benchmark designed to evaluate LLMs on solving engineering problems. It spans three levels of increasing difficulty (foundational knowledge retrieval, multi-step contextual reasoning, and open-ended modeling) and covers diverse engineering subfields. To facilitate a deeper understanding of model performance, we systematically rewrite each problem into three controlled variants (perturbed, knowledge-enhanced, and math abstraction), enabling us to separately evaluate the model's robustness, domain-specific knowledge, and mathematical reasoning abilities. Experiment results reveal a clear performance gap across levels: models struggle more as tasks get harder, perform worse when problems are slightly changed, and fall far behind human experts on the high-level engineering tasks. These findings reveal that current LLMs still lack the high-level reasoning needed for real-world engineering, highlighting the need for future models with deeper and more reliable problem-solving capabilities. Our source code and data are available at https://github.com/EngiBench/EngiBench.


Experimental Assessment of a Multi-Class AI/ML Architecture for Real-Time Characterization of Cyber Events in a Live Research Reactor

Dahm, Zachery, Vasili, Konstantinos, Theos, Vasileios, Gkouliaras, Konstantinos, Richards, William, Miller, True, Jowers, Brian, Chatzidakis, Stylianos

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

There is increased interest in applying Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) within the nuclear industry and nuclear engineering community. Effective implementation of AI/ML could offer benefits to the nuclear domain, including enhanced identification of anomalies, anticipation of system failures, and operational schedule optimization. However, limited work has been done to investigate the feasibility and applicability of AI/ML tools in a functioning nuclear reactor. Here, we go beyond the development of a single model and introduce a multi-layered AI/ML architecture that integrates both information technology and operational technology data streams to identify, characterize, and differentiate (i) among diverse cybersecurity events and (ii) between cyber events and other operational anomalies. Leveraging Purdue Universitys research reactor, PUR-1, we demonstrate this architecture through a representative use case that includes multiple concurrent false data injections and denial-of-service attacks of increasing complexity under realistic reactor conditions. The use case includes 14 system states (1 normal, 13 abnormal) and over 13.8 million multi-variate operational and information technology data points. The study demonstrated the capability of AI/ML to distinguish between normal, abnormal, and cybersecurity-related events, even under challenging conditions such as denial-of-service attacks. Combining operational and information technology data improved classification accuracy but posed challenges related to synchronization and collection during certain cyber events. While results indicate significant promise for AI/ML in nuclear cybersecurity, the findings also highlight the need for further refinement in handling complex event differentiation and multi-class architectures.


A BERT-based Hierarchical Classification Model with Applications in Chinese Commodity Classification

Liu, Kun, Liu, Tuozhen, Wang, Feifei, Pan, Rui

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Existing e-commerce platforms heavily rely on manual annotation for product categorization, which is inefficient and inconsistent. These platforms often employ a hierarchical structure for categorizing products; however, few studies have leveraged this hierarchical information for classification. Furthermore, studies that consider hierarchical information fail to account for similarities and differences across various hierarchical categories. Herein, we introduce a large-scale hierarchical dataset collected from the JD e-commerce platform (www.JD.com), comprising 1,011,450 products with titles and a three-level category structure. By making this dataset openly accessible, we provide a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners to advance research and applications associated with product categorization. Moreover, we propose a novel hierarchical text classification approach based on the widely used Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT), called Hierarchical Fine-tuning BERT (HFT-BERT). HFT-BERT leverages the remarkable text feature extraction capabilities of BERT, achieving prediction performance comparable to those of existing methods on short texts. Notably, our HFT-BERT model demonstrates exceptional performance in categorizing longer short texts, such as books.